Crypto Mar 13, 2024 01:58 PM EDT

Is it Too Late to Buy Bitcoin?

By Isaiah McCall

Is it too late to buy Bitcoin?

Yes. It's better to stay on the sideline and watch it go up. The best advice (not financial, of course) is to wait for the brutal bear market of 2027, when you can buy cheap BTC at $65k after the crash from $400k.

Bitcoin
(Photo : Getty Images) Bitcoin

Or wait until Bitcoin hits 1 million.

Then, write an opinion piece for left-leaning legacy media, "I am totally okay with not buying any Bitcoin in my life. It's a fact I have to live with now. There is no sense in looking back!"

Do I believe all of this?

No. 

As someone who's been in crypto for 5 years, I want to explain why Bitcoin is running up, how to deal with the emotions of selling too early (or buying late), and where I see the price going. 

I sold all my BTC at 20k, how do I cope?

I simply did not believe a real recovery was possible after FTX. Why would any sane person want to sink their money into crypto when it's so easily manipulated? And here I am. Seething. 

Now that BlackRock and Wall St. completely dictate terms, this is the last bull run. Like all other stocks it will just be folded into the market and rise and fall along with everything else. I hate myself.

This isn't exactly my line of thinking.

But I got many DMs on Twitter with this epistemology, and not too long ago I thought something similar. In January 2023 I infamously sold my Bitcoin

I kept my Ethereum, Solana, and other alts. But to pay the bills after losing my job and as we hit a recession (which the Fed changed the definition of to avoid), I had to sell something. Not ideal. I bought Bitcoin around $7,000 in 2020, so I made a profit. Yet if I kept it until now... well, you do the math.

Math

If this is you, stop being regretful and look for opportunities. Look for opportunities. Follow people like overdose gem and smartestmoney.eth on X, and subscribe to Real Vision Finance, the group that wrote the first macro thesis on Bitcoin in the 2010s. 

There's still so much opportunity in Bitcoin and the wider crypto markets.

I've argued this point to writers I respect on Medium, like Jared A. Brock and Jessica Wildfire. They have valid criticisms, which I'll get to.

But Bitcoin has a financial future because it's an electronic data system that tabulates and keeps track of the world's wealth. It's fully distributed and transparent, and it's hard, so it can't be manipulated.

Over money's history of 5,000 years, our tabulation systems have always been corrupted by third parties, whether that be Rome's debasement of currency all the way up to the Fed printing 1/4 of US dollars ever created in 2020. Bitcoin is incorruptible. It's the same in India, New York, and Africa. The only corruption came from systems built on top of it, like FTX, not the system itself.

Ethereum, Solana, and other Web3 platforms also have a financial future because the digital age will not stop. It's like being able to invest in the infrastructure of the internet... something unprecedented. 

Focus on the profit you made (or be glad you didn't lose too much).
No one can predict the top perfectly.

This Bitcoin bull run doesn't feel right...

Reddit

So, let's get into the why. Why is this happening now? Why is Bitcoin going up? 30 Days, give or take. That's the next Bitcoin halving cycle when the rewards for mining Bitcoin are cut in half (meaning less Bitcoin is on the market). This has historically triggered significant price increases after the halving, not before.

Did you get that? In each previous cycle, Bitcoin rose to a new ATH *after* a halving event.

So ask yourself: why is Bitcoin pumping now? WTF is happening?

The keyword is Supercycle

The pump of all pumps

Bitcoin is pumping due to institutions entering the crypto market en masse via ETFs. An ETF is a fund traded on major exchanges such as the NYSE or NASDAQ, mirroring an underlying asset like gold or Bitcoin.

A crypto ETF allows dad, mom, grandma, and financial institutions to invest in Bitcoin easily.

Ostensibly, an ETF also stabilizes the price, allowing older investors and institutions to begin storing more of their gains from stocks in Bitcoin, and countries can also start storing a share of their holdings in BTC.

It will all just keep going, as usual.

But I have a few concerns.

One: BTC will become more prone to market manipulation as it trades hands with larger financial institutions like BlackRock and Fidelity. Systems built on top of systems like we talked about. 

Two: And this is my bigger concern.

This could be a new paradigm shift, and everybody who doesn't buy now will be priced out forever.

There are only 21 million Bitcoins. As we head into a landscape of digital currencies - whether that be CBDCs, Bitcoin, or Ethereum - anyone who buys the digital currency we bank the future on (which looks like Bitcoin... maybe XRP?) will be rewarded exponentially, while "Nocoiners" and anybody born in a future generation will not be able to afford this.

The institutions become absurdly rich, the poor are priced out forever. This is capitalism on steroids...

What's the price of Bitcoin in 2024?

$100k? $200k? $1 MILLION?

Or is a big crash coming?

So far we've been going up for 6 months without a single corrective move. Bullish investors like Michael Saylor and Jack Dorsey are literally dancing around, high on their farts, shouting "new paradigm."

Will we see a 20% crash? Maybe it'll be 350%?
You will OWE money to Bitcoin.

No. With the halving cycle in 30 days, interest rate cuts scheduled for later this year by the Fed, and a presidential election coming... which is when stimulus is historically guaranteed, Bitcoin will have a great year.

Another historical precedent is that crypto slows down in September, so by then, I'd prognosticate that the big price surges will have stopped.

Save this article. We'll see. All I'm certain of is the long-term value of crypto because there's no turning back from the hyper-financial capitalist money-printing economy we've roped the world into... that Bitcoin fixes. And there's the fact that we live in a digital world.

Try not to think of things in terms of "too late" or FOMO. Look for the opportunities around you - there are many.

Related Article: Wall Street Cheers as Bitcoin Breaks the Chains, Soars Above $45,000 in New Year's Rally


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